The Collector Car Market - Arizona 2009

RM Arizona (Big dollar cars don't meet reserves at RM's Arizona auction), Barrett Jackson Scottsdale, Bonham's Gstaad (2008 Bonhams Gstaad). The results are not all that dis-similar. Total auction for BJ peaked in 2007 at $100M. This years estimate? $55M (We crawl through the Scottsdale auction juggernaut). As we start a new year, the market has some big uncertainties. (Heading Into Auction Season, a Mixed Market).

The less than stellar performance of the top end of the market at Gstaad is continuing in Arizona this weekend. Exceptions include the vehicles auctioned for charity. Which is a godsend considering the calamity of Wall Street and savvy investors. A trend was observed in Gstaad in December where the general sense was that there was very nice offerings, but few takers. It is considered that auction results of the new year may bring greater clarity "... a quad-cam Ferrari 275 GTB/4. Restored with no expense spared, it is arguably one of the best examples of this highly coveted Ferrari Grand Tourer. During the auction bids did not reach the reserve set but after some negotiating the car was sold the next day for CHF 964,979" and " ... Two of the most interesting cars in the sale, a Ferrari 121 LM and a Ferrari 212 Export Motto Spyder came from the estate of the late Anthoine Midy .... Both cars were estimated to sell for over CHF 4.7 and 2.8 million respectively, which to our knowledge are good targets. Sadly the ballroom of the Palace Hotel was not very responsive when the two machines crossed the block. The two were offered early in the sale and firmly set the tone. "

On the relative pricing, reference is made to the substantial hit the business took in the late 80's and early 90's and that is not likely to be repeated. I remember that very well, complete with insanely inflated values of marginally significant machinery. Will the outcome of this be as predictable at it has been for say ... the banking sector? There are even the comparisons to the (not-so-)incredible value in the equities markets, and spotting that diamond in the rough is (im)possible. As we have found out, so is falling off a cliff or hitching a ride on the next generational fortune builder.

There is significant value remaining and continuing to build in some cars with historical provenance in racing and/or ownership, rarity, unique coachwork, or one-offs. I would fully support such a statement, but will also acknowledge that trying to recover full value at a time of forced selling in other asset classes may also put pressure of this market. Ceratinly not for all, but for those on the fringes of membership in this hobby may not realize full value if forced to liquidate.

An example of the effect of ownership and rarity (colour) comes from better times and a sale at Pebble Beach Monterey 2007 when this particular Ferrari sold for more than twice it's predicted value (Steve McQueen Ferrari and At $2.3 mil, Steve McQueen Ferrari doubles auction estimate).

As always, many thanks to the tireless hard work of folks at autoblog.com and ultimatecarpage.com

UPDATE1: A record price for an extremely rare unrestored 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider at the Gooding & Co. auction has been recorded (Gooding & Company Posts Impressive Results). And at Barrett Jackson, the 1st Production 2010 Chevrolt Camaro Auctioned for charity brought in $350k.

UPDATE2: Gooding sales total was $32M, RM had $18M and BJ was at $61M. Some very outstanding individual results but broadly disappointing. Seems like the general sentiment was down, with all acknowledging the effects of the recession.